I read this today and I am adopting as my new slogan!
The press seems consumed with the idea of a recession in 2023 or 2024… which would mean:
- We’ll hear about it for another year or two, and this will….
- Probably lead to lower rates.
- Does not equate to a housing crisis.
- Does create inventory and fewer irrational sellers.
Employment is strong. Household balance sheets are currently still in fine shape. Corporate balance sheets are as well since many companies that issue debt regularly refinanced their outstanding debt during the last few years, lowering their obligations… just like millions of homeowners did around the nation.
The implied year-end Fed funds target is now around 3.60%, 75 basis points higher than what was expected at the end of April. The U.S. Treasury curve closed inverted last week on Monday though the 2- and 10-year ended Friday at +4 basis points; so if you are of the camp that believes a curve inversion foretells an economic slowdown you may now start your Recession Countdown Clock (historically speaking, it takes between 12 to 18 months tend to pass from inversion to recession.)
If you can afford a home, marry it!
Source: Rob Chrisman
Published: June 22 2022
Curt Tiedeman, NMLS 35554 Caliber Home Loans, 206.650.4202
Equal Housing Lender.